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Author Topic: 南非幣又可以進場了  (Read 10403 times)
tontonpo
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« on: October 10, 2008, 11:00:12 PM »

 南非幣止跌回穩,  台幣一直阻貶, 但全世界貨幣對美金都已經貶超過10啪

  台幣應該會跟上其他國家腳步,  特別是韓國跌了5啪之後 他們電子業比我們有競爭力多了

   如果美金需求到年底前都不減 那台幣勢必走向33 甚至 34 ,  不過不建議買美金 因為 美金有可能

 一夕垮台,  我建議是買南非幣,  今天美股大跌 但是南非幣沒繼續貶值 . 禮拜一一大早 趕快去買南非幣

 吧
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2008, 11:05:44 PM »

 禮拜一  最好是一大早去  如果晚點去 外資禮拜一匯出 那很可能 

  匯率又有差了, 照道理來說禮拜一台股會大跌, 外資會匯出, 不過

  還是要謹慎來看
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2008, 12:04:14 AM »

南非幣止跌回穩,  台幣一直阻貶, 但全世界貨幣對美金都已經貶超過10啪

  台幣應該會跟上其他國家腳步,  特別是韓國跌了5啪之後 他們電子業比我們有競爭力多了

   如果美金需求到年底前都不減 那台幣勢必走向33 甚至 34 ,  不過不建議買美金 因為 美金有可能

 一夕垮台,  我建議是買南非幣,  今天美股大跌 但是南非幣沒繼續貶值 . 禮拜一一大早 趕快去買南非幣

 吧

韓國都跑到美國跟美國求救了.國家都快垮了,還談甚麼競爭力??

你以為貶值競爭力就強??大家都不研發,都來貶值就好...

美金有可能 一夕垮台,.....要不要講一下理由阿. "一夕"垮台...... Shock! Shock!

南非的主要出口東西是啥,跟最近金融風暴有無關聯?為何買,為何賣,都沒有理由??一天南非必不貶就可以買?? 一元錘錘 一元錘錘



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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2008, 01:20:34 AM »

南非幣止跌回穩,  台幣一直阻貶, 但全世界貨幣對美金都已經貶超過10啪

 台幣應該會跟上其他國家腳步,  特別是韓國跌了5啪之後 他們電子業比我們有競爭力多了

   如果美金需求到年底前都不減 那台幣勢必走向33 甚至 34 ,  不過不建議買美金 因為 美金有可能 一夕垮台,  我建議是買南非幣,  今天美股大跌 但是南非幣沒繼續貶值 . 禮拜一一大早 趕快去買南非幣 吧

我是不建議買南非幣
(1)遠期外匯(一年的,而且是算了利息之後)看起來南非幣還是會續跌
(2)現在金融市場實在是有史以來最混亂的, 外匯存底不高的國家,這波可能都會出事
         (冰島,巴基斯坦.......)
(3)美元不會垮的,只是會貶多少,要是美國政府都破產,全球每個國家都會破產
        (大家外匯存底都是美元,如果美元垮了,大家就真的只能以物易物,或是用黃金來交易貨品)
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2008, 01:59:58 AM »

韓國都跑到美國跟美國求救了.國家都快垮了,還談甚麼競爭力??

你以為貶值競爭力就強??大家都不研發,都來貶值就好...

美金有可能 一夕垮台,.....要不要講一下理由阿. "一夕"垮台...... Shock! Shock!

南非的主要出口東西是啥,跟最近金融風暴有無關聯?為何買,為何賣,都沒有理由??一天南非必不貶就可以買?? 一元錘錘 一元錘錘



韓國跑去跟美國求救??沒看到相關的消息/新聞,如有相關的新聞連結可以貼出來分享一下

不過個人對韓國也是抱持著較負面的看法

有較負面的消息

http://financenews.sina.com/ftchinese/000-000-107-105/806/2008-10-07/1736355282.shtml

http://chinese.chosun.com/big5/site/data/html_dir/2008/10/02/20081002000010.html

也有持正面看法的說法

http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20081009/hrd174854.asp?source=Channel

我是覺得,韓國的確跟台灣一樣主要還是靠出口貿易在支持的本國的經濟

不過就如大家所知道的,它主要的出口集中在幾個超大型集團上(不但比台灣的大集團大的多,甚至比日本的大集團還要更大),且這些集團的壯大主要也是靠著韓國政府的大力支持

而超大型集團就像艘大船一樣,要在短時間做迅速的轉向正確的航道是不容易的,且又因它們大多數是靠著政府的扶植才有今日的現況

所以在現在這個時間點,還是需要韓國政府用力幫它們想辦法找條生路,而如果韓國政府目前使不上力的話...Ae....那就....

回過來講台灣,還是老樣子,主要的出口集中在中小企業上,而中小企業絕大多數的生存與成長都是靠自己想辦法

且這些小船,又都是已經歷盡八年苦撐待變的小船...什麼鬼瘋浪都看過哩...我是比較有信心啦~~
(當然近八九年也沉了很多小船..... Shock!)

另外,在目前的狀況下我想即使亞洲各國想以貨幣貶值的作法來維持出口競爭力應該影響有限

因為目前的大問題是需求不振(指美國.歐洲各國),那貨物再便宜可能也.....

像這幾天台灣公司的九月月報陸續出來了,有間中小型電子廠跟去年九月相比營收衰退了七成 Shock!

總之在面對一樣的外在環境,韓國不會好,而台灣明年也注定是極度艱辛的一年~
_____________________________ __________________

另外,單就金融業來看

美國的大案子應該炸的差不多了,

歐洲的正在炸...

亞洲嘛...大案子應該發生的機率不高...不過各國的中小型銀行會不會因為信心危機導致流動性風險的機率應該是有的~

或是說,因為發生危機而導致銀行間繼續整併的機率應該不小~

_____________________________ ___________________

而指美金一夕垮台我想主要是怕美國政府在債台高築之下,印鈔票還債造成美元大幅貶值吧

而如果發生的話,第一個重傷的會是日本,次之的應該是中國

此二國分別是持有美國國債的第一名與第二名

而如果這兩國重傷的話.........Ae...那就... Shock! Shock! Shock!

_____________________________ ___________________

南非的話主要出口的應該是黃金.鑽石.白金等等

嗯,說實在話,雖說很多人都認為在混亂的年代應該多保有些高單價的金屬保值

但我個人是覺得,這些金屬的價格近幾年也炒的很高了

短線可能還可以維持在高檔

但再往後看我並不看好

原因一樣是需求不振

畢竟今年走到現在,不管是有錢的還是中產階級都受了重傷

短線是會有不少人為求保值購進這些高單價的金屬

但對沒那麼有錢的人來說,買的有限

至於很有錢的人,還是會做資產配置

且全球股市應該照這種走法明年第一季就有機會殺到底部(別說深不見底,照這種殺法,美股要殺到剩三千也是可以很快的...別忘了美股並無漲跌幅限制...)

而到了底部時..有錢人還是會資產配置一步一步的轉回投資在股市及相關產品之上,到時對貴金屬的需求自然會更減弱

當然啦..以上純各人想法,大家看看就好...

P.s.今天布希大約是美國時間早上十點二十左右出來信心喊話,當時美股還撐了一下..不過等他講完後就......繼續洩下去哩...

« Last Edit: October 11, 2008, 02:08:06 AM by Wayne » Logged
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2008, 03:45:17 PM »

我是不建議買南非幣
(1)遠期外匯(一年的,而且是算了利息之後)看起來南非幣還是會續跌
(2)現在金融市場實在是有史以來最混亂的, 外匯存底不高的國家,這波可能都會出事
         (冰島,巴基斯坦.......)
(3)美元不會垮的,只是會貶多少,要是美國政府都破產,全球每個國家都會破產
        (大家外匯存底都是美元,如果美元垮了,大家就真的只能以物易物,或是用黃金來交易貨品)

我對南非幣遲遲不敢再加碼的原因,也是因為它的多空因素夾雜

目前的優勢是:
1.黃金回漲,對出產黃金的南非,經濟上有正面的幫助
2.這波金融風暴,金融發展落後的國家反而逃過一劫,如中國,南非,他們因為在衍生性金融商品發展速度
    不如歐美國家,幾乎沒有踩到什麼次貸,CDO,CDS類似的商品
3.2010世足賽在南非舉行,是他的長線潛在利多
4.跟台灣一樣,南非有一個不錯的央行總裁,對於南非的貨幣穩定有不錯的加分效果
   (台灣,南非,新加坡的央行總裁,最近才被國際金融雜誌評選為今年"唯三"拿到A級評分的央行總裁喔,大陸周小川B-,伯南克C-)

缺點:
1.國際貨幣恐慌性貶值,一旦投資人信心盡失,難保不會出現非理性的恐慌賣壓
2.南非通膨問題依然嚴重,間接影響幣值
3.降息連鎖效應.南非幣目前最具吸引力的仍是他8%以上的高利率,不過一旦降息,恐將失去投資誘因
« Last Edit: October 11, 2008, 03:51:00 PM by Vicky » Logged

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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2008, 03:49:51 PM »

我是不建議買南非幣
(3)美元不會垮的,只是會貶多少,要是美國政府都破產,全球每個國家都會破產
        (大家外匯存底都是美元,如果美元垮了,大家就真的只能以物易物,或是用黃金來交易貨品)

我本來也覺得美國會破產~但這兩天我想想~應該不會

大陸持有那麼多美國國庫券,加上此次金融風暴,大陸受傷算輕(不是看股市喔,是看銀行受傷的情況)

所以在美國政府破產前,大陸一定會去把美國買下來~大陸人一直想當世界第一,我想應該不會放過這個好機會

但美國豈能讓大陸入主其企業,所以死撐活撐依定會想盡辦法撐下去的 Ha!


BTW,關於韓國,他的某些產業如DRAM,的確比台灣還有競爭力,台灣DRAM賠死了,但三星到目前都還沒虧錢ㄛ
還不斷擴產~他的目的就是要逼的我們的DRAM廠混不下去自動退出市場,屆時他就可以獨大
但韓國最嚴重的問題是他的國家舉債過重~所以的確有可能破產的危機

這次冰島會破產的主因,就是他的GDP只佔整體舉債的10%(國內生產1塊錢,卻跟國外借10塊)

有人預測下一個破產的國家是杜拜~我覺得這個比較猛
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2008, 05:05:37 PM »


剛剛自己看到有關韓國求助的新聞~

___________________________

http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/081010/1/17f3x.html


南韓向美國求助
中廣 更新日期:"2008/10/10 14:05"

南韓可能繼美國和歐洲之後,成為金融體系發生系統性危機的第一個亞洲國家,南韓財政部長前往美國求助。

南韓昨天也加入全球降息行動,總統李明博建議召開韓、日、中三國高峰會,謀求聯合行動,對抗金融危機,韓元今天開盤後,持續昨天重貶的走勢,最深的時候貶幅高達百分之五,隨後,疑似外匯存底進場,大金額的美元賣單,讓韓元縮小跌幅。

南韓財政部長姜萬洙即將前往紐約,出席國際貨幣基金會和世界銀行年會,他將求見花旗、摩根大通、高盛等美國主要銀行主管,要求他們擴大對南韓銀行的信用融通。

這個星期一,姜萬洙呼籲南韓銀行要是借不到美元,就出售資產,自己籌措。

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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2008, 05:21:28 PM »

Africa
There is hope
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12381162

Oct 9th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Despite the persistence of Africa’s natural and man-made horrors, the latest trend is cheeringly positive

Panos

UNTIL the past few weeks of global turmoil, Africa’s doughty band of boosters were feeling they at last had something to smile about. After four decades of political and economic stagnation that kept most of their 800m-odd people in poverty and gloom, the continent’s 48 sub-Saharan countries have been growing for the past five years at a perky overall rate of 5% or so. If they maintain this pace or even bump it up a bit, Africa still has a chance of taking off. Now, with commodity prices likely to fall, world markets sure to shrivel and Western aid set to plateau or even dip, Africa, though more isolated from the global economy than other parts of the world, is bound to suffer from its ill breeze. But maybe not as badly. Once described by this newspaper, perhaps with undue harshness, as “the hopeless continent”, it could yet confound its legion of gloomsters and show that its oft-heralded renaissance is not just another false dawn prompted by the passing windfall of booming commodity prices, but the start of something solid and sustainable. Despite its manifold and persistent problems of lousy governments and erratic climates (see article), Africa has a chance of rising.
A long way to go

Pessimists have plenty of evidence to call on. There have been spurts of growth before, especially when commodity prices have risen sharply. But when those prices have fallen, growth has fizzled. Africa’s few recent successes tend to be set against a previous history of disaster. Ghana, for instance, is often cited as one of the most hopeful cases, but at independence in 1957 it was nearly as well off as South Korea; now, despite its recent bounce, it is still some 30 times poorer in wealth per person. The lively growth in several other hopeful spots—for instance, Mozambique, Rwanda and Uganda—must likewise be set against the horrors of their quite recent past. In fact, the sole country in Africa with a record of consistently strong political and economic progress is Botswana.

Many basic indices remain grim. Africans’ lifespan is still declining, owing largely to the scourge of AIDS, 60% of whose worldwide victims are African. A recent World Bank paper was guarded as to whether the African surge would last. Most of the quicker growth, it notes, is due to soaring revenues enjoyed by just eight sub-Saharan African countries blessed with oil. A third of Africa’s countries—by far the highest proportion in any continent—are trapped in civil wars or cycles of violent unrest. The two biggest in area, Sudan and Congo, are ravaged by strife and misgovernment. Zimbabwe, once a jewel of southern Africa, is still a nightmare, despite a recent agreement to forge a government of national unity. The World Bank paper bemoans Africa’s standards of governance.

Perhaps even more worrying, in the past year or so, three of Africa’s leading countries have had heavy setbacks. Nigeria’s election was the shoddiest since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999; Kenya, east Africa’s hub, succumbed to ethnic mayhem after a disputed poll; and South Africa, easily the sub-Saharan continent’s leading power in every way, producing one-third of its entire GDP, has entered an ugly phase of politics, authoritarian if not yet undemocratic, just when it should be setting an example of tolerant pluralism to the rest of Africa. The recent violence against black foreigners is a reminder that the bottom third of South Africans still face gnawing poverty.

All the same, the boosters’ case is stronger than before. Political freedom, however patchy, is commoner than it was a generation ago. Two-thirds of African countries now limit presidential terms; at least 14 leaders (with a few bad exceptions) have felt obliged to step down as a result. Multi-party systems, however fraught, are more usual; the notion of political accountability and choice is more widely accepted. The media, partly because of the internet, are livelier. The latest index of African governance funded by Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born telecoms mogul, suggests a general improvement.

The presumption of state control under the rubric of “African socialism” (an illusory third way) has been junked. Most local leaders accept that Africa must join the global economy to prosper, however shaky it looks right now. The mobile-phone revolution has hugely helped Africans, especially poor peasants and traders. Banking systems are modernising and mortgages more readily offered to an emerging middle class. Businessmen around the world have been investing more, especially in Africa’s better-governed countries. Even those that lack natural wealth have grown a bit faster. The spectacular advent of China into Africa’s market is, on balance, a bonus.

Another report, co-sponsored by the World Bank, gently dissents from the certitudes of the “Washington consensus” that pure free marketry could cure all, and that Africa must just open up to trade, tighten its fiscal strings and sell off the state. One size in varied Africa does not fit all. The rich world could, for instance, offer time-limited trade preferences.
Feel each stone as you cross the river

Other devices could help too. America’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000 has spurred African exports by dropping American tariffs. Another promising new mechanism is the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a voluntary code that a score of African countries have adopted, with governments and foreign firms accounting openly for their dealings—in contrast to mineral-rich Congo, whose government ludicrously claimed in 2006 to have received only $86,000 in mineral earnings. The creation of national savings funds in commodity-flush countries is another good idea. On the farming front, issuing individual land titles, no easy task in a continent where much land is still communally held, is another. Pragmatism often beats dogma.

So Africa has a rare chance to break out of its poverty trap. It would be hard even if governments were honest and efficient. Sadly, most are still not. Amid all the grim drawbacks of climate, disease, illiteracy and ethnic division, bad and corrupt government is still by far the biggest. But the news overall is cheerier. And the rich world, troubled as it is, must never give up in its effort to help the poor one to stand on its own feet.
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2008, 01:19:04 PM »

金融風暴加衰退 美元為何大漲?
 
【聯合報╱編譯陳世欽/報導】 2008.10.27 03:18 am
 
 
遏制金融危機惡化的成本不斷增加。美國聯準會已向金融系統挹注逾8,000億美元,財政部承擔總額7,000億的紓困案,之前搶救「二房」已經花掉2,000億,拯救AIG耗資可能超過1,200億,聯邦赤字明年可能達到1兆美元,衰退已無可避免。

美國經濟財政惡化至此,美元按理應該倒地不起。然而,今年7月初至今,美元兌歐元匯率卻累計上漲16%,對澳元、韓元與其他貨幣也是大漲。美國經濟學家海爾(David Hale)在27日一期的「時代」雜誌撰文指出,原因很簡單:並非投資人想持有美元,而是持有其他貨幣的意願更低。

2006年7月至今年7月,歐陸經濟成長優於美國,美元兌歐元匯率因而下挫。形勢如今逆轉,歐洲和美國一樣面臨衰退,導致美元翻盤。

另外一個因素是,全球避險基金與其他非銀行的金融機構急需美元。此一檯面下的金融區塊為操作投資槓桿而大舉借貸,危機則觸發龐大的貸款提早償還潮和投資人贖回潮,而由於這些資金都必須以美元償還,市場對美元需求大增,導致美元匯率上漲。

這是美元最近走俏的部分原因,而在聯準會可能再度降息,聯邦製幣局全力印製美鈔的情況下,美元是否可能遽貶?或許不至於。隨著財政部執行紓困案,各銀行應可穩住陣腳,再次以具有吸引力的低利率對國內外放款。雖然美國經濟將陷入衰退,金融體系恢復穩定卻可望讓美國經濟在明年觸底反彈。這都對美元有利。

真正的關鍵是中國大陸。中國大陸握有總額5,190億美元的美國公債,僅次於日本的5,930億美元,自然不樂見這筆龐大的投資因美元下挫而嚴重縮水。中國大陸並擔心,美、歐經濟低迷將不利於它的出口成長與整體經濟。為維持出口的價格競爭力,北京當局也樂於拉抬美元,放緩人民幣升值腳步。

短期內,包括中國大陸與日本在內的部分國家將繼續購入美國公債。除了拉抬美元、減緩本國貨幣升值之外,它們其實並未握有太多工具可維持經濟成長。

現在全球金融都在亂,許多國家貨幣跌跌不休,反而使美元像個避風港。至少在未來幾個月,美元恐怕會繼續升值走勢。
 
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